Natural Risk Assessment and Management

Recommended Prerequisites

Basic knowledge on earth and risk sciences.

Teaching Methods

Theoretical and theoretical/practical classes, laboratory and field work.

Presentation and group discussion with detailed explanation of steps.

Occasional invited talks by external experts.

Calculation and use of statistical methods and tools of projection mapping.

Conducting laboratory project work in groups and individually, with submission of the final work report and the oral form.

Use of specific software for self-learning.

Gathering of information in the field, with tutorial support.

Tutorial support in problem solving.

Supporting the preparation of the report and oral presentation.

Learning Outcomes

This course is aimed to provide students capability to evaluate, quantitatively and qualitatively, the physical variables that determine the magnitude and severity of natural hazards, as well as a risk assessment from the consequences and likelihood. To achieve this it provides: (A) an introduction to research methodologies and analysis of susceptibility and vulnerability. (B) promotes the acquisition of statistical and probabilistic risk tools, and resources for the production of thematic cartography, (C) proposes a risk analysis with a historical reconstitution about consequences or probabilistic models of likelihood and, (D) promotes the sellection and adequancy of mitigation measures.

Work Placement(s)

No

Syllabus

1. Concepts of natural hazard, susceptibility, vulnerability and risk;

2. Criteria and types of hazard classification;

3. Risk management models;

4. Aplication of the sequential model from ISO and cycle model from IRGC;

5. Indirect techniques of risk assessment, remote sensing, photo interpretation, geomorphological, geophysical and hemerographic interpretation; Criteria to apply empirical and numerical models to perceive natural hazards.

6. Probabilistic risk Mathematics, random variables, common statistical distribution and extreme values.

7. Multivariate time series analysis;

8. Harmonized and OHA matrix;

9. OEM risk assessment matrix;

10. Forecasting, surveillance and monitoring of processes technics;

11. Structural and non-structural mitigation measures and risk management;

12. Acquisition and processing of georreferenced in GIS environment;

13. Analysis and spatial operations, production of thematic cartography. 

Head Lecturer(s)

Pedro José Miranda da Costa

Assessment Methods

Assessment
Report of a seminar or field trip: 10.0%
Individual presentation of technical too: 15.0%
Presentation of strategic risk framework: 15.0%
Synthesis work: 60.0%

Bibliography

- ANPC (2009). Guia para a caracterização de risco no âmbito da elaboração de planos de emergência de protecção civil, Caderno Técnico Prociv nº9, Edição ANPC, Lisboa.

- ANPC (2008). Manual de apoio a elaboração de planos de emergência de protecção civil, Caderno Técnico Prociv nº3, Edição ANPC, Lisboa.

- AYALA-CARCEDO, F. & CANTOS, J. (2002). Riesgos naturales. Ed. Ariel Ciencia, Barcelona.

GLADE, T; ANDERSON, M & CROZIER, M.J. (2005) Landslides hazard and risk. Ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, Ney York.

- HANDMER, J. & DOVERS, S. (2008). Handbook of disaster & Emergency Policies & Institutions. Earthscan, 188.

- JULIÃO, R.; NERY, F.; RIBEIRO, J. L.; BRANCO, M. C.; ZÊZERE, J. L. (2009) – Guia metodológico para a produção de cartografia municipal de risco e para a criação de Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG) de base municipal, Edição ANPC, Lisboa.

- SMITH, K; PETLEY, D. (2009). Environmental Hazards. Assessing and reducing disaster. 5th Edtion, Routledge, Wolverhampton, 383p.