Support Methods for Decision-Making in Risk Sciences

Recommended Prerequisites

Basic knowledge in natural and exact sciences, social sciences or professional experience in risk science. Knowledge and ability to read in English.

Teaching Methods

Theoretical, theoretical-practical, laboratory and field classes.

Group presentation and discussion with detailed explanation of concepts and interrelationships.

Use of calculation tools and statistical methods and cartographic projection.

Carrying out of individual and group laboratory work, with presentation of the final report and oral presentation.

Use specific software for self-learning.

Observation works and information gathering in the field, with tutorial support.

Tutorial support in the clarification of doubts and resolution of exercises.

Learning Outcomes

a) Provide students access to technological resources for collection, organization and management of information.

b) Enable contact and application of tested risk analysis and classification methodology. Contact and exploration of statistical methods of evaluation of risk components.

c) Provide students contact with skills, oraganizational resources and agents table to manage the warning and alert, emergency and recovery.

d) Provide access of decision support methods used in risk prevention and emergency management. To enable contact with crisis and disaster situations and the use of decision support systems.

Work Placement(s)

No

Syllabus

(1) Technologies for collecting and processing information, from databases and field work. Fundamentals for the production of thematic cartography and for the construction of dynamic spatial models.

(2) Heuristic, deterministic and probabilistic methods for risk analysis.

(3) Analysis of the Degree of Risk from ANPC, OEM and OHS, notation of relative frequency, return period, probability of exceedance and Bayesian application of the concept of ALARP and FN curves.

(4) The Civil Protection System, elements, competences and organization.

(5) Typologies of emergencies, risk plans and their implementation, organization and institutional capacity building.

(6) Study of fire in the urban-forest interface and thermal performance of buildings. Reaction of the human body to extreme thermal environments. Industrial accidents.

(7) Fire detection systems, fuel management and fire behavior prediction systems. Impact of fire on structures and building materials and vehicles.

Head Lecturer(s)

Alexandre Manuel de Oliveira Soares Tavares

Assessment Methods

Assessment
Report of a seminar or field trip: 10.0%
Laboratory work or Field work: 20.0%
Resolution Problems: 30.0%
Synthesis work: 40.0%

Bibliography

 

(1) Chuvieco E., 2003. Wildland Fire Danger Estimation and Mapping - The Role of Remote Sensing Data. World Scientific.

(2) Greiving, S., Fleischhauer, M., and Luckenkotter, J. (2006). A matrix based methodology for an integrated risk assessment of spatially relevant hazards. J. Environ. Plann. Manag. 49, 1-19.

(3) Julião, R.; Nery, F.; Ribeiro, J.; Branco, M. & Zêzere, J. (2009). Guia Metodológico para a Produção de Cartografia Municipal de Risco e Para a Criação de Sistemas de Informação Geográfica (SIG) de Base Municipal. ANPC/DGOTDU/IGP; Lisboa, 92p.

(4) Rodriguez H., Quarantelli E. & Dynes R. (2006). Handbook of Disaster Research. Springer, 611p.

(5) Smith K. and Petley D. N., 2009. Environmental Hazards. Assessing risk and reducing disaster. Routledge Taylor and Francis Group, 383 pages.

(6) Sterling L.S. and Taveter K., 2009. The Art of Agent-Oriented Modeling. The MIT press. 367p.