Factors and Risk Analysis

Recommended Prerequisites

Basic knowledge in natural and exact sciences, social sciences or professional experience in risk science. Knowledge and ability to read in English.

Teaching Methods

Theoretical classes with detailed exposition, using audiovisual resources of the concepts and principles underlying the processes and methods. Theoretical-practical classes in order to solve real cases and evaluate new situations, exercises of practical application. Use of calculation tools and statistical methods. Fieldwork in which the students have contact with evidence of processes and exposed elements. Observation work and information gathering on the field. Proposal of actions for monitoring and systematic process representation.

Learning Outcomes

With this curricular unit, students are expected to understand concepts and identify methods and tools used in the evaluation of natural and environmental risks, namely: (A) assessment of hazardous processes and the conditioning and triggering factors; (B) identification of methodologies for investigation and analysis of susceptibility and hazardous processes; (C) Representation of impacts associated with hazardous processes and exposed elements; (D) Statistical and probabilistic analysis of risk; (E) Assessment of instruments and tools for monitoring the processes of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.

Work Placement(s)

No

Syllabus

(1) Conditioning and triggering factors processes associated with the hazard . Criteria for analysis of hazard factors: origins, typology, environment location, duration, level of activity, range of action, damages vector, predictability.

 (2) Evaluation of susceptibility, hazard and exposure related to natural processes: internal geodynamics (seismicity, volcanism and tsunamis); external geodynamics (flooding processes, coastal erosion, mass movement, erosion and sedimentation, collapses); natural radioactivity and contamination of soil and groundwater geochemistry.

(3) Mathematics probabilistic risk, random variables, distribution and common statistical outliers. Multivariate analysis and time series. Methods of historical analysis of natural disasters. Databases for the reconstruction and validation of models.

(4) Remote sensing and Technological systems for process representation and monitoring at real time, cartographic units and processes and exposed elements representation.

Head Lecturer(s)

Pedro José Miranda da Costa

Assessment Methods

Assessment
Laboratory work or Field work: 20.0%
Research work: 30.0%
Synthesis work: 50.0%

Bibliography

Cunha, P. P. and Dinis, J. (1998). A erosão nas praias do Cabo Mondego à Figueira da Foz (Portugal centro-oeste), de 1995 a 1998. Territorium - Revista de Geografia Física aplicada no ordenamento do território e gestão de riscos naturais, 5, 31-50.

Julião, R.; Nery, F.; Ribeiro, J.L.; Castelo-Branco, M. & Zêzere, J.L. (2009). Guia Meteodológico para a produção de cartografia municipal de risco e para a criação de sistemas de informação geográfica (SIG) de base municipal. ANPC, DGOTDU, IGP. 91p.

Pine, J.C. (2009). Natural Hazards Analysis. Reducing the impact of Disasters. Taylor and Francis Group, CRC Press, Boca Raton, 285p.

Smith, K. and Petley, D. (2013) Environmental Hazards. Assessing risk and reducing disaster. 6th edition. Routledge, 383p.

Tabachnick, B. G., Fidell, L. S., & Osterlind, S. J. (2001). Using multivariate statistics. Ed. Pearson, 965p.