Risk Analysis

Recommended Prerequisites

Knowledge of Mathematical Analysis, Statistics and Probability.

Teaching Methods

Presentation of the theoretical concepts and methods of analysis during, Tutorial classes for presentation of exercices and autonomous resolution by students. Development of monography for oral presentation by students.

Learning Outcomes

After successful completion the student acquired competences in the field of modeling uncertainty in engineering based on knowledge gained in the area of statistics and probabilities. The student has also consolidated the theoretical knowledge through the development of applications of Bayesian decision theory, construction and analysis of event trees and risk assessment in engineering. He also has identified several types of natural and technological risks and developed a monograph on the analysis and assessment of these risks.

Work Placement(s)

No

Syllabus

Types of risk analysis. Concepts of resilience, strength and vulnerability. Methods of analysis. Qualitative and quantitative approaches. Risk types and examples of probabilities of occurrence: natural, ecological, economic, human health, structural collapses. Review the concepts of probability and statistics. Bayes' rule to calculate probabilities. Modelling uncertainty in engineering. Random variables. Exact and asymptotic statistical distributions. Stochastic processes. Gumbel Statistics of extremes. Applications. Building models in engineering. Selection of statistical distributions and parameter estimation of the distribuição.Teoria Bayesian Decision. Event tree. Analyses-priori and a-posteriori. Likelihood. Risk assessment in engineering. Identification of risk scenarios, representing systemic probabilities and consequences. Examples.

Head Lecturer(s)

Helena Maria dos Santos Gervásio

Assessment Methods

Assessment
Synthesis work: 40.0%
Exam: 60.0%

Bibliography

Introdução computacional à probabilidade e estatística – António Pedrosa, Sílvio Gama, Porto Editora, 2004.

Risk and Safety in Civil, Surveying and envirionmental engineering – M.H.Faber, ETHZ, Switzerland.

Probability and statistics for engineering and the sciences – Jay L. Devore, Duxbury, USA, 2000

Prevenção e protecção das construções contra riscos sísmicos, Fundação Luso-Americana para o Desenvolvimento, Lisboa, 2004.

Probability and Statistical Inference – Robert Hogg, Elliot Tanis, Prentice HallNew Jersey, 2001.

Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods – Tim Bedford and Roger Cooke, Cambridge University Press, 2001